To truly understand your opponent's perspective, it's crucial to actively listen, follow their announcements, and carefully read about their plans. Frédéric Encel's exclusive interview with Newmag (video).

In his 17th book on geopolitics, Frédéric Encel elucidates that geopolitics extends beyond the realms of history, sociology, demography, and geography. He simplifies the concept, emphasizing its profound significance, which often surpasses our conventional understanding.

"In today's global discourse, geopolitical crises dominate discussions, with far-reaching implications. I felt compelled to write this book to underscore that geopolitics revolves around power dynamics, their expressions across diverse regions, particularly in areas where geography plays a pivotal role."

Especially in the context of the South Caucasus, and particularly within a small geographic footprint like Armenia, I aimed to craft a narrative that bridges historical contexts with contemporary realities. Geopolitics, as I perceive it, delves into the individual and communal interpretations of global dynamics, taking into account the depth of historical events and their lasting impact. In this regard, Professor Yves Lacoste, soon to celebrate his 90th birthday, serves as both a mentor and a lodestar for me. This book is also my homage to his invaluable contributions."

According to Encel, the book "Paths of Power" is relevant not only for leaders of countries but especially for leaders of nations facing vulnerabilities, threats, and pressures, such as Armenia. "In this book, I offer an objective, rational, and comprehensive exploration of the concept of power equilibrium. Understanding this dynamic is crucial for anticipating the actions of adversaries like Azerbaijan, Turkey, and others, including Russia. By delving into decision-making processes and gauging the strengths and weaknesses of states and their leaders, readers gain essential insights."

He emphasizes the importance of never underestimating one's opponent, a principle thoroughly examined in the book. "This mindset is a hallmark of true strength. It entails actively listening, monitoring, and analyzing the strategies and intentions of adversaries and related parties. By doing so, leaders can align their own strategies with the geopolitical landscape effectively. Thus, this book serves as a valuable addition to any reader's arsenal."

Is the Artsakh issue closed to the great powers from a geopolitical standpoint, or do Armenians still harbor realistic prospects for a breakthrough? According to Encel, the events of 2020 and 2023 represent not a lost war, but rather a lost battle, echoing the words of Charles de Gaulle who once declared, "France lost the battle, but not the war." Encel believes that Armenia, despite the setbacks, will retain the potential to reclaim its legitimate rights, albeit requiring numerous geopolitical shifts. “Foremost among these is the need to reassess alliances, with Armenia's partnership with Russia deemed obsolete due to perceived betrayal”. Additionally, Encel stresses the imperative of addressing Armenia's demographic crisis, advocating for measures to bolster birth rates, which currently stand in dire straits.

“The demographic situation in Nagorno-Karabakh mirrors that of Armenia, underscoring the critical role of fertility in bolstering national strength. While Armenia may lack abundant natural resources like oil, its greatest asset lies in its intellectual capital. Indeed, knowledge is often touted as the gateway to power, as demonstrated by the successes of nations such as Israel, Singapore, and Sweden. Despite facing similar challenges such as poor soil and low birth rates, these countries have leveraged high technology to drive economic growth and ensure their relevance on the global stage. Additionally, persistence emerges as another vital factor for achieving breakthroughs. Without unwavering determination to defend one's rights over the long term, any gains made may ultimately fade into obscurity”.

According to Frédéric Encel, the current geopolitical landscape portrays Turkey as exhibiting less ambition and posing a lesser threat compared to Azerbaijan. Unlike Azerbaijan, Turkey's approach is characterized more by negotiation rather than aggression, even in light of historical events such as the genocide. “While this stance may raise moral questions, it remains a factual observation. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, actively pursues an aggressive policy toward Armenia, effectively implementing Turkey's ambitious agenda in the region. However, Azerbaijan's actions carry significant risks, particularly in terms of potential repercussions from Europe, a key source of financing for the country. Any offensive actions by Azerbaijan could trigger sanctions, similar to those imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. Consequently, Turkey appears to exercise more caution in its geopolitical maneuvers compared to Azerbaijan”.

Newmag presented the inaugural copy of the Armenian edition of the boom to the author. Frédéric Encel's response was notably positive. "Undoubtedly, the Armenian edition is a source of great pleasure for me, as I have long regarded myself as a friend of Armenia. The history of the Armenian people and their remarkable resilience throughout history has always left a profound impression on me.

The attempt to annihilate the Armenian people through genocide, along with the ongoing denial of this atrocity, as well as the continued actions of empires against Armenia and its people, evoke even deeper emotions within me. The significance of my book being the first translation in Armenian, with plans for translations in other countries, fills me with profound honor and pride”.